Note: While reading a book whenever I come across something interesting, I highlight it on my Kindle. Later I turn those highlights into a blogpost. It is not a complete summary of the book. These are my notes which I intend to go back to later. Let’s start!
Today, successful AI algorithms need three things: big data, computing power, and the work of strong—but not necessarily elite—AI algorithm engineers
It’s a contest between two approaches to distributing the “electricity” of AI across the economy: the “grid” approach of the Seven Giants versus the “battery” approach of the startups. How that race plays out will determine the nature of the AI business landscape—monopoly, oligopoly, or freewheeling competition among hundreds of companies. The “grid” approach is trying to commoditize AI. It aims to turn the power of machine learning into a standardized service that can be purchased by any company—or even be given away for free for academic or personal use—and accessed via cloud computing platforms. In this model, cloud computing platforms act as the grid, performing complex machine-learning optimizations on whatever data problems users require. The companies behind these platforms—Google, Alibaba, and Amazon—act as the utility companies, managing the grid and collecting the fees. Hooking into that grid would allow traditional companies with large data sets to easily tap into AI’s optimization powers without having to remake their entire business around it. Google’s TensorFlow, an open-source software ecosystem for building deep learning-models, offers an early version of this but still requires some AI expertise to operate. The goal of the grid approach is to both lower that expertise threshold and increase the functionality of these cloud-based AI platforms. Making use of machine learning is nowhere near as simple as plugging an electric appliance into the wall—and it may never be—but the AI giants hope to push things in that direction and then reap the rewards of generating the “power” and operating the “grid.” AI startups are taking the opposite approach. Instead of waiting for this grid to take shape, startups are building highly specific “battery-powered” AI products for each use-case. These startups are banking on depth rather than breadth. Instead of supplying general-purpose machine-learning capabilities, they build new products and train algorithms for specific tasks, including medical diagnosis, mortgage lending, and autonomous drones
Using only the task-based approach misses an entirely separate category of potential job losses: industry-wide disruptions due to new AI-empowered business models. Separate from the occupation- or task-based approach, I’ll call this the industry-based approach
In predicting what jobs were at risk of automation, economists looked at what tasks a person completed while going about their job and asked whether a machine would be able to complete those same tasks. In other words, the task-based approach asked how possible it was to do a one-to-one replacement of a machine for a human worker. My background trains me to approach the problem differently. Early in my career, I worked on turning cutting-edge AI technologies into useful products, and as a venture capitalist I fund and help build new startups. That work helps me see AI as forming two distinct threats to jobs: one-to-one replacements and ground-up disruptions. Many of the AI companies I’ve invested in are looking to build a single AI-driven product that can replace a specific kind of worker—for instance, a robot that can do the lifting and carrying of a warehouse employee or an autonomous-vehicle algorithm that can complete the core tasks of a taxi driver. If successful, these companies will end up selling their products to companies, many of whom may lay off redundant workers as a result. These types of one-to-one replacements are exactly the job losses captured by economists using the task-based approach, and I take PwC’s 38 percent estimate as a reasonable guess for this category. But then there exists a completely different breed of AI startups: those that reimagine an industry from the ground up. These companies don’t look to replace one human worker with one tailor-made robot that can handle the same tasks; rather, they look for new ways to satisfy the fundamental human need driving the industry. Startups like Smart Finance (the AI-driven lender that employs no human loan officers), the employee-free F5 Future Store (a Chinese startup that creates a shopping experience comparable to the Amazon Go supermarket), or Toutiao (the algorithmic news app that employs no editors) are prime examples of these types of companies. Algorithms aren’t displacing human workers at these companies, simply because the humans were never there to begin with. But as the lower costs and superior services of these companies drive gains to market share, they will apply pressure to their employee-heavy rivals. Those companies will be forced to adapt from the ground up—restructuring their workflows to leverage AI and reduce employees—or risk going out of business. Either way, the end result is the same: there will be fewer workers
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